The Golden Week season in Asia, like Chinese New Year, always prompts an annual reduction in vessel sailings on Asia-to-Europe routes. To give some context, for the five-week span covering weeks 39-43 of 2025, carriers are estimated to have removed 250’000 to 3000’000 TEU’s of capacity through blank sailings. But how does that compare to the same period in 2024, and what does the trend tell us about the risks that Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs) face?
What We Know: 2024 vs 2025
2025:
Estimated blank sailings removed 250,000-300,000 TEU over weeks 39-43. This is based on 3-4 cancellations/week during weeks 39-41 (Golden Week window), reducing to 1-2 per week in weeks 42-43; using an average vessel size 18,600 TEU.
2024:
Sea-Intelligence and other sources in mid-2024 reported blanked capacity on Asia-Europe being at 5.9% of total scheduled capacity for comparable peak windows.
For instance, carriers planned for blank sailings to reduce 5-6% of Asia-North Europe capacity in the peak period leading up to or overlapping Golden Week.
So, whilst 2024 saw blanked capacity in the same season, the gross TEU removed was likely far less than in 2025, due to fewer large vessels and less network consolidation. BCOs should assume that 2025’s blanking impact is unusually high.
What It Means for BCOs: Key Risks & Pitfalls
Comparing the two years helps illustrate certain pitfalls that BCOs must plan for in quarter 4 2025:-
1. Higher Disruptions Even with similar percentage blanking, more TEU removed means that more shipments have the potential to being rolled or delayed. If you had difficulty securing space in 2024, expect stiffer challenges in 2025.
2. Rate & Spot Market Pressure As larger vessels get blanked, the remaining sailings are in higher demand. This has the potential to push up spot rates and reduces flexibility for long-term contract holders who rely on schedule reliability.
3. Inventory & Lead Time Strategy The higher blanking in 2025 suggests that building buffer inventory and moving earlier than usual will be more important. Last year’s lags could often be absorbed, this year, delays may be affected more severely.
4. Equipment & Container Imbalances Lost sailings reduce equipment repositioning options. In 2024, blank sailings caused some shortages post Golden Week. In 2025, with more capacity withdrawn, those shortages could be worse.
5. Reliability Risks & Contract Exposure As blank sailings become more frequent and affect larger vessels, schedule reliability worsens. Ensure your teams have factored this into their lead times and your delivery times promised to clients.
Takeaways & Advice
- If you are a BCO, potentially plan for worse this year – the more TEU’s removed, the more sailings cancelled, especially around week 40.
- Ensure you’re forecasts are accurate, lock in sailings, book earlier and insist on visibility around blank sailing schedules.
- For those who don’t have their freight contracted for pricing and capacity, higher blank sailings has the potential to drive up spot rates significantly. Budget for potential freight increases if you don’t have long term contracts.
- Build in lead-time on production & shipments. Routing contingencies, alternate ports or modes (e.g. feeder vessels, rail) may give you fallback options.
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