“When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. When supply exceeds demand, prices go down. That’s the law of the market.”
— Adam Smith
The above quote from Adam Smith, the famous 18th Century Scottish economist still holds very true today, especially when it comes to global ocean freight!
The Asia–Europe ocean freight trade remains one of the largest global ocean trades, but volatility has become the defining feature of the past few years. At ShiftX, we track indices such as the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) to help clients make informed and strategic supply chain decisions.
Our analysis of the past 52 weeks highlights shifting dynamics that underline the importance of stability, flexibility, and carrier diversification.
SCFI Performance Over the Last 52 Weeks
The SCFI shows a steady decline from mid-2024 into 2025, reflecting a market under pressure from new vessel capacity and weaker European demand.
Quarterly Summary of SCFI Trends
Period SCFI Trend Avg. SCFI (USD/TEU)
Q3 2024 Rates softened after summer peak 2,721
Q4 2024 Mild rebound with carrier push 2,515
H1 2025 Weaker demand kept rates low 1,354
Q3 2025 (to date) Rates rebounded but are now under pressure 1,852
This trajectory highlights the challenges facing shippers: rate volatility, sudden surcharges, and capacity swings that complicate long-term planning.
Market Drivers
Several forces are influencing the Asia–Europe trade:
- New Capacity: Mega ships added in 2025 are increasing supply, softening rates.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: Routing continues via the Cape of Good Hope continue to disrupt schedules.
- European Demand: Inflation and weaker consumer demand reduce import volumes.
- Carrier Strategies: Blank sailings help stabilise rates but are inconsistent. Are the carriers looking to build a roll pool around Golden Week? Is this due to larger, earlier pre Chinese New Year demand?
Why Annual Contracts with Six Carriers Matter
At ShiftX Ltd, we believe volatility requires a smarter approach. Our strategy of enabling clients to access annual contracts across six major ocean carriers delivers three clear benefits:
1. Stability in Costs:
Contracts buffer against spot rate volatility, ensuring predictable logistics budgets.
2. Diversification of Risk
Working with multiple carriers reduces exposure to blank sailings, congestion, or service disruptions from a single provider.
3. Strategic Flexibility
Multi-carrier contracts allow clients to optimise routing, transit times, and equipment availability, even in turbulent markets.
This approach ensures our clients are not only shielded from extreme rate fluctuations but also to ensure they have space locked in with more than 1 carrier.
Outlook for the Remainder of 2025
- Pre-Golden week, further rate erosion. Is this being done to create roll pools in origin? Will the carriers blank further sailings to restrict capacity?
- Similar to an earlier summer peak season that started in April/May, will the pre Chinese New Year demand surge start earlier this year in October?
- If the carriers are able to restrict capacity to create demand, where will this leave the spot prices from mid October going into November?
Conclusion
The Asia–Europe ocean market is entering a new equilibrium, rates are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic lows, but the extraordinary highs of 2021 are equally unlikely. In this landscape, ShiftX Ltd’s carrier-diverse annual contract model is the key to supply chain resilience and cost efficiency.
With data-driven insights and proactive strategies, we help our clients ride the shifts of the ocean freight market with confidence.
Would you like to know more? We’d love to discuss our approach with you. Please click the link below to get in touch and we’ll book in a discovery call.
We'd love to hear your thoughts on the Asia-European freight market and its influences. Please share your ideas in the comments below!
