When will Asia-Europe Westbound Traffic Return to the Suez Canal?

The ongoing disruption in the Red Sea continues to reshape global shipping patterns, with the Asia–Europe westbound trade still rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Despite isolated escorted voyages, such as CMA CGM’s eastbound transits under French naval protection, the corridor remains unstable and commercially unviable for regular westbound services.

At shiftX, our assessment aligns with the cautious that a meaningful and predictable reopening of the westbound Suez route is unlikely before Q4 2026 at the earliest. 

1. The Current Picture: High Risk, Limited Progress

Since late 2023, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have effectively closed the Suez route for eastbound and westbound containerised trade. While naval coalitions have increased protection, risk levels remain unacceptable for large-scale commercial operations. Insurers continue to impose heavy war-risk premiums and carriers have rebuilt their service networks around longer Cape routes.

Although the Suez Canal Authority is ready to welcome traffic back, geopolitical conditions and not infrastructure remain the bottleneck.

2. Timeline: Why Q4 2026 Is the Earliest Viable Reopening

Three major conditions must be met before carriers return westbound via the Suez:

• Security stability: Months of reduced attack risk and credible enforcement to ensure the security of seafarers, vessels and their cargo
• Insurance alignment: Lower premiums and clear liability structures
• Operational confidence: Carriers must be certain they can maintain reliable schedules

Possible Scenarios

• Optimistic: Limited trial westbound voyages in late 2025–2026
• Base Case (shiftX outlook): Stable commercial return beginning Q4 2026
• Pessimistic: A full reopening delayed to 2027 or beyond

In reality, carriers will wait for a long stretch of predictable conditions before shifting high-value assets and crew back through the Red Sea.

3. Why Reopening Will First Create Congestion

A return to Suez won’t immediately restore smooth sailing. When services begin switching back, the industry will go through a complex and most likely, messy transition.

Convergence of Traffic

Cape routed vessels will still be completing long rotations while Suez routed services resume. This creates arrival bunching, whereby large ships arriving at European ports within stressed windows.

European Port Pressure

Major hubs such as Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges, Hamburg, Algeciras, and Piraeus are likely to experience:

• Surges in yard density
• Berth and crane congestion
• Delays in rail and trucking flows
• Elevated dwell times

The knock-on impact may last several weeks or months, similar to the post Ever Given congestion waves.

Equipment & Scheduling Imbalances

The sudden shortening of transit times will:

• Pull empties back to Asia faster than expected
• Create shortages and surpluses across inland depots
• Trigger blank sailings as carriers reset rotations
• Cause short-term rate volatility

In short: Suez reopening solves the long-term problem but creates an immediate operational shock.

4. What Importers & Cargo Owners Should Do Now

To stay ahead of the transition, shiftX recommends:

• Planning for mixed Cape/Suez routings during the transition
• Maintaining higher safety stock until schedule reliability stabilises
• Securing inland capacity early, especially rail and truck flows
• Using contracts that specify routing transparency
• Diversifying entry ports to mitigate congestion risks

The more proactive the preparation, the smoother the transition into 2026–27.

shiftX Takeaway

Our forward assessment remains:

Full-scale, predictable westbound Suez routing is unlikely before Q4 2026.
When it returns, expect 6–12 months of congestion and schedule instability across Europe.

shiftX will continue monitoring developments and providing market intelligence to help our customers and partners stay ahead of the curve.