There has been increasing discussion across the shipping industry about a potential return to regular commercial transits through the Suez Canal in 2026. While this narrative continues to gain momentum, the underlying conditions suggest a far more fragile outlook. The core issue is not the canal itself, but confidence.
Any meaningful return to Suez sailing is ultimately determined by insurers. In theory, a ceasefire in the Middle East should help rebuild confidence. In practice, however, that ceasefire appears extremely tenuous.
From a commercial risk perspective, this distinction matters. A ceasefire that could unravel quickly offers limited reassurance to underwriters, particularly given the minimal warning potential attacks can involve. Insurers require not only stability, but durability, and at present neither can be assumed.
This uncertainty is already shaping carrier behaviour. One operator previously viewed as a potential early mover in restoring Suez services has not only stepped back from deploying additional vessels through the canal, but has also been rumoured to have begun removing some of the Suez loops it had been trialling. The withdrawal of these services, reportedly informed by ongoing intelligence-led security concerns, highlights how cautious even major carriers remain.
Against this backdrop, expectations of a co-ordinated, industry-wide return to Suez routing in 2026 appear optimistic. A more plausible scenario is a fragmented, stop-start approach, with selective transits rather than the restoration of stable, weekly networks. There even remains a real possibility that regular schedules do not return at all in 2026.
Without sustained insurer confidence, carriers are unlikely to commit vessels to fixed Suez routings, leaving the majority of capacity routed around the Cape for longer than many forecasts currently assume.
However, one report from Drewry's in the last week announced that insurance premiums have dropped significantly in the last week. This could prove to be an indicator though that carriers could review their stance on returning to the Suez sooner rather than later if there are no further security concerns.
Whenever Suez traffic does resume in greater volumes, disruption is likely to follow. A convergence of vessels rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope and those returning through the canal will place immediate pressure on port infrastructure.
European ports in particular, should plan for a two to three month period of congestion as schedules realign, berth availability tightens, and inland networks absorb sudden surges in volume.
Adding another layer of uncertainty is the delivery of new tonnage. Up to 30% additional container capacity is expected to enter the market over the next 12 to 18 months through new ship builds.
Under normal conditions, this would place downward pressure on freight rates, especially on Asia to Europe trades. However, without a reliable return to Suez sailing, that capacity risks being inefficiently deployed, delaying the rate correction many shippers are anticipating.
For cargo owners, the key takeaway is realism. 2026 is shaping up to be defined by volatility rather than resolution:
In this environment, flexibility, scenario planning, and strong commercial alignment are essential.
At shiftX we continue to monitor security developments, insurer positioning, and carrier network decisions closely, supporting our members through a market where confidence is limited and assumptions can change quickly.
A return to Suez may come, but it is unlikely to be stable, predictable, or guaranteed in 2026.